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The 2009 retirement plan year in review

Consumer spending, job losses and early retirements combined for an interesting year.

By Jerry Kalish
December 2, 2009

"IL buono, il brutto, il cattivo" is the title of Sergio Leoni's 1966 movie, considered the greatest of the Italian spaghetti westerns. We know it in this country, of course, as "The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly." The movie starred Clint Eastwood (the Good), Eli Wallach (the Bad) and Lee Van Cleff (the Ugly). And just like the movie, the year 2009 entailed some good, some bad and some ugly for retirement plans.

And so with apologies to the aforementioned director and actors, here are my nominations in each of the three categories.

The Good: Increased consumer spending

Maybe I'm clutching at straws to find some good, but the retirement plan equation is at the tail end of consumer confidence, which leads to consumer spending, which ultimately results in profits from which employers provide retirement benefits.

At the time this column was written in mid-October, the Deloitte Consumer Spending Index rose again in September, hitting its highest level in two years. The index, whichcomprises tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices, attempts to track consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending.

Carl Steidtmann, chief economist with Deloitte Research, a subsidiary of Deloitte Services LP, and author of the monthly index, says that "the fundamentals of consumer spending continue to improve, giving households increased purchasing power. The housing market is beginning to show signs of stabilizing while initial unemployment claims have fallen significantly. Household net worth is rising and real wages are climbing at their fastest pace in 40 years. Signs of recovery got a boost from the cash for clunkers program in August, plus a gain in real spending has materialized across the board in recent months."

The Bad: Job losses

The labor market is key to a recovery. And despite consumer spending, the labor market is not good at all. The media's short-term focus on the monthly changes in the unemployment rate is much like viewing the financial health of a company based on quarterly earnings.

But it's all about medium- and long-term trends. U.S. job losses accelerated in September, and the unemployment rate reached its highest level since 1983. What's worse is that the actual number of jobs has fallen back to levels first reached in 2000. Over the long term, it's the highest unemployment in a generation.

The economy has to create lots of new jobs just to keep the employment rate steady. The job losses of the last two years have made it all the more difficult to return to the long-term trends.

Politicians and economists are grappling with how to create jobs. One idea being bounced around Washington is a tax credit for companies that create new jobs. This approach hasn't been done since the 1970s.

The Ugly: Early retirements

The recession hit many older workers who wanted to continue to work but suddenly found themselves unemployed. Many can't afford to retire, especially after the financial collapse demolished their 401(k) accounts. And so with no place to turn except Social Security, unemployed seniors are applying for retirement benefits, which are 23% higher than last year.

As a result, the Congressional Budget Office is projecting that Social Security will pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes over the next two years. This is the first time that's happened since the 1980s when Congress last overhauled Social Security.

The deficits - $10 billion in 2010 and $9 billion in 2011 - won't affect payments to retirees, because Social Security has accumulated surpluses from previous years totaling $2.5 trillion. But they will add to the overall federal deficit.

On an individual level, the financial implications of taking early retirement can be huge. Even before the recession, approximately 50% of those eligible to take Social Security at age 62, the earliest possible age do so, were doing so.

Taking Social Security sooner can result in a reduction in benefits of approximately 25% for a 62-year old. Moreover, if the applicant is a married man who has been the primary wage earner, his decision to take early Social Security benefits can result in a reduction in his wife's survivor benefits. But there may be no choice.


Contributing Editor Jerry Kalish is the founder of The Retirement Plan Blog and president of National Benefit Services, Inc., a Chicago-based employee benefit consulting and administrative firm.

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