Earlier this year, Manpower, a world leader in the employment services industry, surveyed nearly 39,000 employers across 33 countries and territories to determine the extent to which talent shortages are impacting today's labor markets.

Not surprisingly, the survey found that scientific, technical, engineering and mathematically based (STEM) jobs are the hardest to fill. In May, with more than 14 million unemployed in the middle of a severe economic downturn, 3 million STEM jobs still were vacant.

For U.S. employers, the situation is particularly worrisome. The Department of Labor projects that between 2006 and 2016, there will be 50.8 million job openings across the economy. But new jobs will number only 17.4 million, while replacement jobs will be nearly twice as many at 33.4 million. This means that retirements will account for 66% of the jobs to be filled.

Many occupations face a particularly steep job replacement curve. In 2007, 52% of U.S. engineers and scientists were over age 50. About half of all government workers were approaching the same age.

This also was the case for skilled craftsmen and machinists, nurses, lab/radiology technicians and many other occupational areas. Some industries, including aerospace and advanced metalwork sectors, face a replacement rate approaching 100%.

Knowledge technologists

The World Future Society predicts that over the next 10 years, the amount of new technology products and services may equal that of the last 50 years! This will hinge on the development of a cadre of workers whom Peter Drucker termed "knowledge technologists" - technicians who can make, install, service and repair the varied technologies on which our nation depends.

Knowledge technology jobs now require high school completion with skill levels in reading and math at the 12th-grade level, plus some form of postsecondary career education such as a two-year degree or technical certification. Currently, however, the overall U.S. high school graduation rate hovers around 70% and drops to an average of 50% percent in our 50 largest cities.

Over the past several decades, overall growth in the U.S. tech workforce was sustained by importing large numbers of foreign workers and by members of the echo-boom generation (the children of the baby boomers, sometimes called Generation Y millennials) who have reached working age. However, in 2008, labor force growth began dropping to near zero and will remain so to 2030.

Socioeconomic developments in other countries cast doubt on continuing to rely on H-1B visas to fill large number of STEM job vacancies in the United States. As India and China scale up their own tech economies, they will have increasing difficulty finding qualified skilled workers to meet their own needs.

Their education-to-employment systems fail to provide quality education preparation in adequate numbers to support their economic expansion. In Japan, South Korea, Germany and many other European nations, populations are shrinking, and so are their workforces.

As is often true in the United States, students in these countries are shunning the rigorous educational preparation needed for scientific or technical careers. In Japan, they call this phenomenon "the flight from science." Even the tech-driven German economy in 2008 was experiencing a shortage of 75,000 engineers to fill vacant positions.

Some countries are seeking to move more production of goods and services to the United States. Others are attempting to import the STEM talent they need from a rapidly shrinking global technical talent pool.

Retention and compensation crises

From 2010 to 2020, the United States faces the prospect of 12 million to 24 million vacant jobs. We do not have a labor shortage, but rather a skilled talent shortage. The impact will probably be greatest on small and mid-sized companies.

Large business will poach the talent they need from these businesses. Between 10% to 15% of small businesses will run the risk of closing because they will not be able to fill key positions.

Furthermore, there are strong global indications that wages will rise rapidly once the recession ends. More dollars will chase less talent worldwide over the next decade.

U.S. businesses need to begin addressing this looming crisis now by motivating key employees to advance their skills through training and education, and by participating in community partnerships to update education-to-employment systems for the next decade's ultra-high-tech knowledge economy.

Many U.S. businesses are beginning to address the problem through local community-based organizations (CBOs) or non-governmental organizations (NGOs). In Santa Ana, Calif., Fargo, N.D., Danville, Ill., Mansfield, Ohio, and many other communities, local CBOs and NGOs are rebuilding the education-to-employment system.

They are helping employees advance their skills, while also preparing the next generation for employment through career information and education programs. Such initiatives will help both address potential talent shortages and avoid future wage inflation.

In a recent speech before the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce, Steve Ballmer, Microsoft's CEO, endorsed supporting such partnerships. He pointed out that the people behind the technology will create future U.S. innovation.

Twenty-first century technological advances will necessitate major human capital investments in new education-to-employment systems. Employers must take steps now to rebuild the jobs pipeline. Improving and increasing employee technical training and the math and science education of U.S. students can help head off a massive talent crunch and employee compensation crisis.